We live in a world shaped by constant uncertainty. Climate change, alongside forces such as geopolitics, market shifts, pandemics, and technological disruption, is reshaping how societies function and how people experience risk and opportunity. The idea that the future will unfold in a linear way no longer holds. Instead, exploring multiple possible futures can help communities, institutions, and decision-makers stay prepared, resilient, and responsive.

This is where Futures Thinking becomes particularly relevant. Futures thinking offers structured ways to imagine, question, and shape alternative futures, especially in contexts where climate uncertainty demands more adaptive and inclusive approaches to planning.

Futures thinking has been studied and practised for over 50 years, under names such as futures studies, futures research, and foresight. In recent years, its relevance has grown significantly, as climate and social systems become increasingly unpredictable.

So what is futures thinking?
A comprehensive definition of Futures Thinking describes it as a “strategic approach to explore and critically consider future scenarios in order to define the most preferable ones for people and society. The aim of Futures Thinking is to provide policy-makers, and more broadly decision-makers in any field, with the capacity to proactively anticipate changes, recognize opportunities, and ease the transition toward desirable futures. Indeed, Futures Thinking allows not only to acknowledge changes in the long term but also, and above all, to inform today’s decision-making activities.”

There are numerous methodologies available for futures thinking, along with many tools for putting them into practice. Broadly, methods range from codified approaches, such as trend analysis or projections, to those based on judgement, expertise, and intuition. Many contemporary approaches combine both, drawing on evidence while creating space for imagination and collective sense-making.

Over the years, I have had the opportunity to learn and apply several futures thinking methodologies in my work. As an interdisciplinary researcher and practitioner, I strongly value plurality, both in disciplinary perspectives and in the diversity of worldviews that participatory processes can bring. Futures thinking approaches that meaningfully involve multiple stakeholders tend to enrich outcomes, allowing collective intelligence to shape how futures are imagined and acted upon.

Below, I reflect on three methodologies I have encountered through practice, and the lessons they hold for climate-related work:

Transformative scenario planning: imagining futures to change the present

The first methodology I encountered was Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP). This approach brings together a diverse set of actors to transform a system that they are part of, particularly when that system feels stuck or contested. Scenarios are used not only as tools for adaptation, but as invitations to collectively shape desired futures.

TSP takes a systems-wide approach, ensuring the inclusion of actors from across the system who often hold different stakes, values, and solutions. The process encourages participants to engage with complexity, listen to each other’s concerns, and move beyond singular narratives of the future.

In 2017, as part of the ASSAR project at IIHS, we applied this methodology to think critically about the future of water security in Bengaluru, a challenge deeply linked to climate variability and governance. Over 18 months, we convened multiple workshops with actors across the city’s water system. Together, we unpacked the complex dynamics at play and developed four future scenarios. From these scenarios, we worked backwards to identify what actions would be needed, both collectively and individually, to move from the present towards more equitable and sustainable futures. One important outcome was the opportunity for diverse stakeholders to share their fears, hopes, and aspirations. Over time, the process built empathy and enabled participants to imagine a future water system that was more just and resilient.